In this episode we are joined by Barnaby Fletcher, Associate
Director at Control Risks. In a wide-ranging discussion covering
politics, economics and conflict at different scales, we
unpick the risks and opportunities for Africa in 2022.
We begin by discussing the nature of risk, outlining Barnaby's
work as a leading risk analyst for East and Southern Africa and the
career journey he took to get there. He defines risk as the
potential effect of uncertainty, and explains how, while risk
exists everywhere, the combination of debt, pandemic, climate
change and multi-dimensional conflict makes Africa a
particularly compelling case.
Ongoing unrest in the Sahel, Sudan, Ethiopia, Mozambique,
Libya and several other nations has involved a diverse cast of
regional and international players, contributing to a fragmented
conflict landscape that offers unclear prospects for a neat
resolution. Meanwhile, recent local elections in South Africa and
upcoming national elections in Kenya and Nigeria have thrown up new
tensions, cleavages and opportunities for
domestic political players.
As the 2021 Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa
Risk-Reward Index makes clear, however, Africa is also full of
opportunities. We discuss the burgeoning data, energy, agricultural
and biotech sectors, highlighting how the failure of the rest of
the world to provide support during the COVID-19 pandemic has
forced Africa into exciting, self-sufficient development in key
areas. The balance of risk and reward on the continent remains
dynamic, but there is much to look forward to in 2022.
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